Fremantle should win the contest. They should win territory. What happens next will decide the Premiership.

It's Grand Final week, and for all the usual noise surrounding selection, there has actually been remarkably little change. Fremantle and Brisbane are both going in unchanged from their Preliminary Final wins, which means both clubs arrive at the MCG with the combinations that got them here.

There are a couple of interesting names sitting outside the 23. Brennan Cox is available for Fremantle and Noah Answerth is available for Brisbane. Both would probably be playing but for the late-season injuries that cost them their places, but neither has been brought back simply because they're healthy again. Both coaching groups have backed the teams that won their Preliminary Finals.

So these aren't makeshift teams trying to cobble together one last performance. These are effectively the combinations each club has chosen to trust.

And when I look at the game, I keep coming back to the same thing: I think Fremantle will win the contest and I think Fremantle will win territory.

The Grand Final will be decided by what happens after that.

Because if the Dockers get the game they want, the ball is going to spend an awful lot of time inside their forward half. Whether they can turn that territorial dominance into a winning score — while preventing Brisbane from launching the other way — is where this gets really interesting.

It Starts With Luke Jackson

Fremantle should have a significant advantage in the ruck. Across their past five games, the Dockers have averaged 43.6 hitouts compared with 30.8 for their opponents, and more importantly, 15.2 hitouts to advantage compared with just 6.8.

That advantage is translating to the ground as well. Fremantle are +2.2 in centre clearances, +1.6 in stoppage clearances and +3.8 in total clearances across that period.

Then Luke Jackson produced a monster Preliminary Final against Sydney: 27 hitouts, 11 to advantage, 10 contested possessions, three clearances, three contested marks, two goals and eight score involvements. That's not just a ruckman winning the taps. That's a player influencing virtually every phase of the game.

And underneath him, Fremantle have Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Hayden Young. Against Sydney, Serong had 28 disposals, 13 contested possessions, 10 clearances and 10 inside 50s. Brayshaw had 29 disposals and 13 contested possessions, while Young added 28 disposals, 11 contested possessions and seven tackles.

That's why I expect Fremantle to win its share of first possession. But there's an important distinction here: winning first possession isn't necessarily the same thing as winning the midfield.

Brisbane have Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage and Will Ashcroft, with Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner capable of joining them. Ashcroft was outstanding against Hawthorn, recording 28 disposals, eight clearances, 10 inside 50s, 549 metres gained and 10 score involvements.

Brisbane's challenge therefore isn't necessarily to beat Jackson and Fremantle at possession one. It may be to win post-clearance.

Pressure Fremantle's first possession. Make the exit messy. Force the next ball back into dispute.

Because if Jackson's tap becomes Serong's possession, which becomes Young running away from stoppage, which becomes a clean Fremantle inside 50, Brisbane have a problem. If Jackson wins the tap but Brisbane pressure the next disposal and turn it back into another contest, that's a very different game.

What If Josh Dunkley Eclipses Hayden Young?

This might be Brisbane's most interesting midfield lever.

Young showed against Sydney exactly why Fremantle need him. With the Dockers' season slipping away, he kicked that ridiculous goal from the boundary after the three-quarter-time siren and then dominated the final quarter as Fremantle overwhelmed Sydney.

Serong and Brayshaw provide enormous reliability around the contest. Young gives Fremantle explosion. He wins contested ball, but he can also break away from congestion, gain territory, deliver inside 50 and hurt you on the scoreboard.

And Brisbane have Josh Dunkley.

Saturday will be Dunkley's sixth Grand Final — two with the Bulldogs and now four with Brisbane. Since he arrived at Brisbane in 2023, the Lions have played in the Grand Final every single year.

Now, I'm not suggesting Josh Dunkley single-handedly turned Brisbane from September flame-outs into perennial Grand Finalists, but he is a winner. He wins the football, he tackles, he can play as a conventional midfielder and he can sacrifice his own game. If an opposition midfielder starts getting hold of the game, he's also perfectly capable of simply making that player his responsibility.

So imagine Fremantle starting to get on top. Jackson is winning the ruck, Serong and Brayshaw are accumulating, then Young gets four or five damaging possessions in ten minutes. Suddenly Fremantle isn't simply winning the midfield anymore — it's hurting Brisbane with it.

That's when Dunkley goes to Young.

He doesn't necessarily need to keep Young to 10 possessions. He needs to prevent the quarter that changes the game.

Fremantle could win the ruck battle and even finish +4 or +5 in clearances, but if Dunkley can eclipse Young while Neale, Ashcroft and McCluggage remain productive around him, Brisbane can remove the midfielder most capable of turning Fremantle's clearance advantage into damage.

That's potentially more important than the raw clearance count.

Jackson v Draper Isn't Just About Hitouts

There's another part to the ruck battle because Sam Draper can make Jackson defend.

Draper had 26 hitouts with 13 to advantage against Hawthorn, so he's hardly incapable at stoppage. But his ability to go forward might be even more important on Saturday.

If Draper pushes deep, what does Fremantle do? Does Jackson follow him, or does a Fremantle key defender take him? And if a defender takes Draper, what does that do to Fremantle's other match-ups?

Brisbane don't necessarily need Draper to beat Jackson in the ruck. They need him to make Jackson accountable.

Because if Jackson is simply allowed to roam around the MCG doing whatever he wants — winning hitouts, getting involved at ground level, taking marks and then drifting forward himself — Fremantle have a major advantage.

So this matchup isn't just about who wins the taps. It's about which ruckman can make the other one react.

Then Fremantle Gets the Ball Inside 50...

And this is where I think the Grand Final will be decided.

Over their past five games, Fremantle and Brisbane have averaged exactly the same number of inside 50s: 57.4 per game.

But look at what happens once the ball gets there. Brisbane have generated a scoring shot from 53.0% of their entries. Fremantle are at just 42.5%.

Brisbane's average expected score across that period is around 112, while Fremantle's is around 87.

That's an enormous difference from identical entry volume.

So Fremantle winning inside 50s 58–52 isn't enough. The Dockers have to do something with them.

Against Sydney they generated a ridiculous 68 inside 50s, yet Josh Treacy finished with eight disposals, one contested mark and no goals. Jye Amiss kicked one.

Do that against Brisbane and Harris Andrews might have the time of his life.

Which brings us to Patrick Voss.

Voss Doesn't Need to Beat Harris Andrews

He needs to occupy him. That's a very different job.

Against Hawthorn, Andrews had six intercept possessions, three intercept marks and three contested marks. Give him the opportunity to leave his direct opponent, protect space and fly across to help Brisbane's other defenders and he can destroy a forward line without his own opponent ever touching the football.

So Voss needs to make Andrews defend Voss.

Take him somewhere. Compete physically with him. Make him worry about an opponent rather than an area. Most importantly, don't let him continually roll across to Treacy and Amiss.

And this is where something I've been uncomfortable about with Fremantle suddenly starts to make a little more sense.

I Don't Love Three Tall Forwards

Big forwards just don't seem to kick bags in pressure finals anymore. Sadly, it isn't the 1980s.

Space disappears, pressure rises, entry kicks get rushed and defenders spoil instead of mark. Three big blokes all heading towards the same football can very quickly make a forward line crowded and predictable.

So Treacy + Amiss + Voss worries me.

Except...what if Voss isn't really playing as Fremantle's third key forward?

What if his job is Harris Andrews?

Now Fremantle effectively have a two-tall forward structure. Treacy and Amiss are the genuine targets, while Voss is somewhere else occupying Brisbane's best intercept defender.

Suddenly predictable becomes a good thing.

Two targets operating in defined spaces gives Fremantle a clearer idea about where the entry is going, which also means a much clearer idea about where the ball is likely to land. And that creates predictable front-and-centre positions for Michael Frederick, Isaiah Dudley and Sam Switkowski.

Now we're getting somewhere.

Because in a pressure Grand Final, I don't necessarily need Treacy kicking five and Amiss kicking four. I need them competing, bringing the ball to ground in predictable locations and giving Fremantle's small forwards a chance to go to work.

And if that structure also keeps Andrews away from the contest? Even better.

Frederick and Dudley Have Another Job

They also have to defend.

Brisbane's defence isn't simply there to stop the opposition scoring. It's where Brisbane's offence begins.

Across the past five games, Brisbane have transitioned the ball from D50 to F50 on 31.3% of opportunities. Fremantle are at 21.6%. Brisbane go D50 to score 14.1% of the time compared with Fremantle at 7.9%.

From the defensive half more broadly, Brisbane transition to F50 at 38.6% and to score at 15.8%.

Those are serious numbers, and Dayne Zorko and Darcy Wilmot are right in the middle of it. Zorko had 21 disposals, five intercept possessions and 515 metres gained against Hawthorn.

Give those guys time after a Fremantle entry and Brisbane don't want to chip sideways and slowly work their way up the ground. They want to go.

That's why Frederick and Dudley's defensive work might be just as important as their goals. Against Sydney, Dudley had five tackles to go with 16 disposals and two goals, while Frederick also recorded five tackles.

Fremantle need that again because the Dockers don't simply need to get the ball inside 50.

They need to make inside 50 sticky.

Turn one entry into a stoppage. Turn that stoppage into another entry. Force Brisbane to defend again. Keep Jackson, Serong, Brayshaw and Young playing the game in Fremantle's half of the ground.

Because Brisbane Want One Thing...

Imagine the sequence.

Fremantle wins the clearance. Brisbane pressures the exit. The Dockers still get territory, but the kick going inside 50 isn't quite clean.

Andrews — or another Brisbane defender — intercepts the pressured entry kick and... GO.

Straight through the corridor.

Zorko and Wilmot launch from half-back. Bailey and Rayner attack through the middle of the ground. Charlie Cameron suddenly has grass in front of him.

Meanwhile, Fremantle's defenders, who five seconds earlier were aggressively positioned behind the football, are now sprinting desperately back towards their own goal.

That's Brisbane's Grand Final:

Pressure → intercept → corridor → attack.

And it's why the Frederick/Dudley defensive role matters so much. Their job isn't simply to stop Zorko and Wilmot accumulating possessions.

It's to prevent that entire chain reaction.

And at the Other End...

Fremantle have a completely different problem because Brisbane don't need their key forwards to dominate. Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner can hurt you in so many different ways.

Cameron kicked three against Hawthorn from 13 possessions and had seven score involvements. Bailey produced 18 disposals, seven inside 50s, 458 metres gained and seven score involvements. Rayner only had 12 disposals but still generated 380 metres gained, six inside 50s and four clearances.

That's why Jordan Clark and Heath Chapman are so important.

Both have had...let's call them interesting finals series.

Chapman's numbers against Sydney were excellent: 20 disposals, 10 intercept possessions and 395 metres gained. Clark had 19 disposals, six intercept possessions and 490 metres gained.

Fremantle need both players attacking, but against Brisbane they need to defend first.

One defender gets sucked towards the football and Cameron is goal-side. One attempted intercept doesn't come off and Bailey is attacking space. One breakdown around the contest and Rayner is coming through the front of stoppage.

This isn't about whether Clark or Chapman can beat somebody in a collection of isolated one-on-one contests.

Fremantle's defensive unit needs to win the air battle, then win the ground battle, and then attack.

Get that order wrong against Brisbane and things can go bad very quickly.

So What Does Each Team Want?

For Fremantle, the ideal Grand Final is compressed. They want contest, stoppage, territory and repeat entry.

Jackson influences the ruck. Serong and Brayshaw win possession. Young turns possession into damage. Voss occupies Andrews while Treacy and Amiss operate as the genuine aerial targets. Frederick, Dudley and Switkowski know where the ball is coming to ground.

Then, when Brisbane wins possession, don't let them out.

Force another stoppage. Create another opportunity. Generate another entry. Squeeze.

Brisbane want almost the opposite.

Survive Fremantle's initial contest advantage and pressure the first possession after clearance. If Young starts getting away, send Dunkley to him. Force Fremantle to enter under pressure and give Andrews and the Brisbane defence something they can intercept.

Then...

Intercept the pressured entry kick and GO.

Straight through the corridor. Zorko and Wilmot launching from half-back, Bailey and Rayner attacking through the middle and Cameron getting Fremantle's defence running towards its own goal rather than allowing Clark, Chapman and company to defend with the game in front of them.

And somewhere amongst all of that, Draper needs to go forward often enough to prevent Jackson simply roaming around the MCG imposing himself on the game.

That's it.

Two very different games.

And whichever team succeeds in creating theirs for longest probably spends Saturday evening holding the cup.

Final Selection

I keep coming back to Fremantle.

I expect them to win the contest and I expect them to win territory. With Jackson giving Serong, Brayshaw and Young the opportunity to establish that territorial advantage, I think the ball will spend enough time in Fremantle's forward half for them to win.

But the entire selection rests on what happens next.

If Andrews is allowed to roam, Brisbane intercepts the pressured entry and suddenly Zorko and Wilmot are heading straight through the corridor. That's the danger, and given Brisbane's transition numbers, it's a pretty bloody significant one.

But if Voss occupies Andrews, suddenly I don't see three Fremantle tall forwards anymore. I see Voss with a job, and I see Treacy and Amiss as two predictable targets, with Frederick, Dudley and Switkowski working to predictable front-and-centre positions.

That's a forward structure I like a lot more.

So...

Fremantle by 17 points.

Brisbane kick a couple late because apparently the Purple Army hasn't suffered enough, and everyone in purple spends the final few minutes wondering if something truly horrific is about to happen.

But Fremantle holds on.

And for the Norm Smith?

Jordan Clark.

I'm going very specific: 23 disposals, six marks, five intercept possessions, five tackles, five running bounces and five inside 50s.

Not necessarily the player who wins the most football, but the player who repeatedly wins it where Fremantle need him to, and then turns defence into another attack.

If Fremantle gets the Grand Final I'm expecting — contest, territory, front-half pressure and repeat entry — Jordan Clark should spend an awful lot of Saturday afternoon exactly where the game is being played.

Now we just need to see how badly this paragraph ages.